What a difference a decade makes

With all the trade talk inevitably the Astros name comes up vis-a-vis the Randy Johnson trade, which sent Carlos Gullen, Freddy Garcia and John Halama. As much as you can lament the loss of such players from the Astros minor league systems as Bobby Abreu or Johan Santana, it is so striking to read this article ten years later and see how far the Astros franchise has come in the last decade.

"The Astros have camoflagued themselves as a small-to middle-market franchise."

In 1998 the Astros had the fourth longest drought without a playoff win. The White Sox, Cubs and Angels have all snapped their streaks in the interim, but it took the Astros till 2004 to snap their playoff futility (no more Kevin Brown). In the fourteen years since McLane became owner, the Astros have the fourth best overall record in all of baseball (Red Sox, Yankees and Braves have better).

In all probability the Astros are going to miss the playoffs for the third straight time, as their odds of reaching the playoffs are currently put at 0.067% (a number reached by baseballprospectus.com, look at it here). The Astros are no longer pitied or shrugged off like the Pirates or Royals, or perhaps the Giants, but they are sliding downhill for certain.

There is a lot to fix and I'm not sure Ed Wade has a realistic vision or the nouse to ignore some of McLane's more inert suggestions, but this team did win 18 of 24 earlier this season. However Wade has seen this as evidence that the Astros can go on some miracle run and get back in the October hunt.

The Astros are 50-57, with 55 games to go. Realistically the Astros need 40 wins out of 55 games to make the playoffs (90 wins). The Astros are 9 games behind joint wildcard leaders St. Louis and Milwaukee (who got torched by the Cubs in a four game series). This team is not good enough to make a crazy 36-10 like run. The Astros have 17 more series to play in August and September, and to make the playoffs they would pretty much have to win them all (is this what it is like in Wade's fantasy land?).

The Astros will face the Mets starting tonight, Pedro will face Backe, Santana will be taken on by Oswalt and Wolf will take on John Maine.

Astros find winning ways at last
With two straight wins under their belt, and a third coming their way there was a different atmosphere at Minute Maid Park, a change from the gloom of the past month. The Astros are still a distance from Milwaukee, Chicago and St. Louis, but hopefully they can put space between them and the Pirates and Reds.

After Roy Oswalt won a narrow 5-4 win, after allowing just an Adam Dunn grand slam Carlos Lee responded with one of his own off Bronson Arroyo, giving Brian Moehler plenty of room as the 36 year old cruised through 8 innings, before stumbling in the ninth before being relieved by Wesley Wright.

A number of things seems to have galvanized this team into action. The first is the re-shuffling of the lineup that seems to have gotten Miguel Tejada going. Before being moved to the 2 spot in the order, in his previous 48 games Tejada was batting .202 a .251 OBP, .301 SLG%, 4 HR and 8 RBI. Then in his last four games he has 5 RBI and is batting .667 (10x15). Geoff Blum's home runs have been a welcome surprise too.

The return of Roy Oswalt and Randy Wolf gives the rotation more stability, and if nothing else two starters who should chew up innings. With Moehler at least having one good performance every alternate outing and Rodriguez has won his last three starts, having great outings against Milwaukee and Chicago.

Now we get to the bugbear of the issue. All the hardwork will be undermined if the Astros lose the series finale, but they have to beat...Edison Volquez. We'll see.

Some exciting major league news. Firstly the Angels get Mark Teixeira by dealing Casey Kotchman to the Braves, while Kyle Farnsworth and Pudge Rodriguez change places. Chris Carpenter is making his first start since Tommy John surgery tonight too.

Astros win finale, series

After last night's game Cecil Cooper, the Houston Astros skipper beamed at reporters and told them, "I didn't know it was my birthday." He didn't but he could well have, given the situation. For two months the Astros have been stuck in offensive quagmire, seeing dismal defeat after dismal defeat. The Astros produced an offensive outburst seen only once previously in two months, an 11-10 win against the Red Sox in Houston.

After Ryan Braun's 2 run homer off Randy Wolf, who had an unspectacular debut (except for the nice single), I had this post already written. The Astros would score 6 runs off the Brewers in 3 games while dodging their best two pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets.

And yet, out of nowhere to start the fifth the Astros scored 7 runs off Jeff Suppan. However, there are some drawbacks to believing the Astros offense is back. The first is that if not for the two Blum home runs this game might have swung in a different direction. The Astros were merely 5-4 ahead before the Blum homer in the 5th. If Melvin had pulled Suppan then (which he probably should have) then things might have happened differently too.

But the Astros churned out 16 hits, Brad Ausmus went a startling 4-4, Tejada looked right at home in the 2 slot and everyone had a good day at the plate bar Carlos Lee, 0-5 with a GIDP to go with it.

Make no mistake, this was a huge series win for the Astros, not only to best the Brewers at home where they are 32-19 (only Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Boston, and both Chicago teams have better home records), or the fact that the Brew-Crew were red-hot coming into the encounter, winners of eight straight.

So therein lies the contradiction. The Astros beat both the Cubs and the Brewers, but got swept by the Pirates in the middle, giving them a 4-5 record to start the second half. The Astros will welcome in the Cincinnati Reds for a three game series, in which Houston can be confident they can win at least 2 of 3. Houston gets back Roy Oswalt, who owns a 19-1 record against the Reds.

Astros top Brewers 3-1

If only Wandy Rodriguez had 120 odd innings rather than 87 2/3, with his 3.18 ERA. Richard Justice may rile against the Wolf trade all he likes, but he was probably telling Wade to go and get some pitching, for McLane to spend more. Though Wolf is 1-6 with a 6.94 ERA in his last 9 starts, he should be an upgrade over Hernandez or Cassell. Roy Oswalt will pitch Monday against the Cincinnati Reds. The Astros dodge the red hot C.C. Sabathia in this series at Miller Park too. There are plenty of positives.

Michael Bourn had a nice game last night against a tough leftie, Manny Parra. His approach at the plate was good, he was patient at the plate. Humberto Quintero is back after a head injury and will hopefully be more productive than either Ausmus or Towles has (it is hardly possible to be less productive).

However, the Astros only seem to be winning when their starting pitching is on the game. In July they have not won any slugfests, the closest being 6-4 wins over Washington and Pittsburgh. In June they won only ONE GAME when their opponents scored more than three runs (11-10 win against Boston). That is a staggering statistic. Since May 19th, they have won a total of 3 games when their opponents have scored 4 runs or more (that is a stretch of 57 games).

This pitching staff will keep the team in contention in games but the offense is not winning enough of them. Lance Berkman is having a rough July but someone needs to bail him out. Tejada, Bourn, Pence, Matsui, Lee, Wiggington and Quintero need to pick up the pace. Tejada still has 2 RBIs to his name since June 20th. Bourn's been sat on the bench for about a month, while injuries have cost Wiggington the stability needed as an everyday player. In key situations, like Lee striking out with a man at 3rd in the 6th the Astros failed to get runners in (although last night they had to contend with two blown calls by second base umpire Mike Winters).

Hence, as I have demonstrated in earlier posts, it is the offense and not the pitching that needs to buck up their ideas.  

Astros acquire Wolf from Padres

With just over a week until the non-waiver trade deadline on July 31st Ed Wade has gone out and done something. The price for Randy Wolf was not too steep, costing one Chad Reinke, and if Wade hadn't already realised, he did after the disasterous series with the Pirates that Runelvys Hernandez and Jack Cassell just don't cut the mustard when it comes to the rotation.

However the lineup is still in a terrible stall. They have just lost the first two games against the Pirates, losing a game started by John Van Benschoten, statistically the worst pitcher of all time (the worst career ERA with at least the amount of innings he has).

The team has been outscored 478 runs to 423. In the first 51 games of the season the Astros scored 247 runs, an average of 4.84. From a 15-6 loss to the Phillies the Astros have scored 176 in 48 games a drop in average to 3.66. They were 29-22 over the first period , and 17-31 over the latter period.

Overall the Astros are getting a combined .559 OPS from the catcher position, .579 from center field and .668 from third base.

However, with all their woes if not for their 7-11 interleague record and two ugly sweeps to Baltimore and the Yankees the Astros might be hovering around .500. However they are still 46-53, they have 12 games left against Cincinnati, 8 against Pittsburgh, 6 against Milwaukee, 6 against St. Louis, and 9 against Chicago. Theoretically they could turn their season around, but this series against the Pirates has demonstrated that the Astros cannot finish off poor teams, nor should they be looking for big series wins against the Brewers, Cardinals or Cubs even with the series win they earned from the Cubs at MMP a few days ago. The lineup was bailed out by two stellar pitching performances. The Astros have more home than road games and more importantly no monster road trips, of which they had three in the first half. By the end of May they had run out of gas.

So with Roy Oswalt not back until July 28th at the earliest Randy Wolf will join Moehler, Backe and Rodriguez. Sooner or later Sampson will have to be moved back to the rotation unless Cooper wants to guarantee losing ever fifth day until Oswalt gets back.

Starting pitching is only one half of the coin however. Nothing will happen unless Tejada starts using his bat again, and the Astros get some production from Humberto Quintero, who will replace Towles as catcher again. Tejada has a paltry 2 RBIs in July, adding to the 6 he collected in June (that's ugly). Erstad replacing Bourn in center will help, as will Wiggington finally being stable at third, but the Astros need Pence's bat to warm up too.

So Wade thinks the Astros can contend, but there are too many unanswered questions, and with so many holes the Astros wont compete with better teams in Milwaukee, St. Louis and Chicago. Hoping the Astros get streaky for a period of three weeks at some point over the next two months is not a strategy condusive to success. Rather than start again, Wade is refusing to throw in the towel for 2008 just yet.

A good series win against the Cubbies

The series win against the Cubs was a start, and a good one but not a great one. All the Astros did was cut their defecit to the front running Cubs by a game. The difference between a good team and a great team is that with the bases loaded the Astros would have found a way when they had the bases loaded to tie the game, but they scored none. Towles looked lost at the plate swinging over three pitches by Ryan Dempster.

The Astros offense still hasn't woken up and despite winning 2 of 3 they scored a paltry six runs. Now Tejada heats up, Matsui and Erstad shut down leaving nobody for Lance Berkman to drive in. Brad Ausmus is so terrible at the plate that he really should be wearing the opposite uniform. Its not our pitching that has let us down, we always knew the staff would be mediocre at best, but I expected the Astros lineup to score enough runs to rival the Phillies or the Cubs. As soon as some hitters heat up others go cold. We still haven't seen the best of Pence yet this season.

Ed Wade says that he's looking to add someone to the bullpen for the late innings, but I'd say thats the only thing we don't need. Not that we could find a decent hitting catcher or a starting pitcher worth getting at this stage of the season. The Astros face the Pirates, the Brewers and the Reds. If they don't do anything in this nine game stretch their slim chances will receed even further.

What planet is justice on now?

Today represents a fresh start. Today is the first day of the rest of your season. The Astros have 67 games remaining. They've got 12 before the trading deadline--six of them against the Brewers and Cubs. Ten days from now, they could be right back in the race and shopping for that one final piece. Remember how much fun we had down the stretch in 2004 and 2005? Remember how great October was? I have a feeling we're headed there again.

This is the kind of stupid nonsensical statement that Justice likes to throw his readers now and again, before flip flopping the next week when it proves completely and uttlerly wrong.

Would I love to see the Astros recover? Sure, I'd be over the moon. Do I think we're dealing in the realms of possibility? No. The Astros have no starters who can guarantee us a good outing every time out, Tejada hasn't hit for two months, while Towles, Bourn and Ausmus haven't hit all season. Hunter Pence isn't giving us as much as we thought from right field, while our bullpen is still apt to blow a lead when we really need one.

Ed Wade should be on the phone to Ned Colleti asking him if he wants Jose Valverde. Look at how Billy Beane has turned around the A's in less than a few months by shopping Harden, Haren, Gaudin and Blanton. And the A's are still winning.

A Few tidbits

Lance Berkman's VORP through 93 games is 62.8. He leads the league in SLG% (.656), OPS (1.098), total bases (217), extra base hits (55), times on base (174). he is third in BA (.347) behind Andruw Jones and Albert Pujols, seventh in HR (22), second in runs scored (77), third in OBP (.443), second in doubles (30), fourth in hits (115), third in RBI (73) and seventh in BB (55), and third in IBB (13). Add 13 stolen bases, an EqA of .365 and a OPS+ of 188 we're looking at a bloody good season. However it is not enough for Jayson Stark who gives his first half MVP to Albert Pujols (figures). Meanwhile Jon Heyman discounts Berkman completely (and Chipper Jones) because he's on a losing team). He's even created an Ed Wade award (for the worst NL executive, awww how cute).

I don't like the way the all-star game is voted for. As I sat in Busch Stadium filling out my card, the guy next to me told his daughter "no, no vote for our guys, because everyone else does." I watched in horror as he picked all Cardinal players including guys like Adam "damned If I'm going to vote for Dan Uggla or Chase Utley because those guys suck" Kennedy. How stupid is that?

Its hard to believe tht Ryan Howard isn't an all-star, but thats what you get for opening the ballot as early in the season as they do. The surge that has made Howard's numbers go from great to amazing has happened in the last week (after the all-stars were unveiled). Howard currently leads the NL in HR and RBI after a month of July where he has 8 HR and 16 RBI. With all the great first basemen out there at the moment, also Adrian Gonzalez is kind of deserving, and he is the Padres lone representative at the ASG.

A good win over the Nationals last night, especially good to see Hunter Pence contribute the home run, and Chris Sampson getting that huge double play in the sixth. Hunter Pence has been one of the disappointments of 2008 and has not lived up to the expectation that he kindled with his outstanding rookie season. True his numbers are ok, and maybe I'm being harsh on him, but he was non-existent in June, and he has been caught more times (7) than he has steals (5).

Remember the good old days?

Today has got me feeling rather nostalgic about the Astros. Chip Bailey would have Ed Wade deal Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, Mark Loretta and Ty Wigginton and Geoff Blum before July 31st. I'd be inclined to agree.

Last night the Astros got humbled again, this time by the major league's worst. At least Houston can take solace that Cleveland and Seattle are in worse position's than them, expected by everyone to compete.

If you follow a three/four year plan the Astros needs two good starting pitchers and a few arms in the bullpen if you deal Valverde and Brocail will be hanging up his boots in the near future. You need a third baseman and a shortstop if you deal Tejada (who will be gone soon anyway).

As I was watching the Yankees-Red Sox last week while I was in Philly, the pair (I think it was Joe Buck and Timmy McC) were comparing the Yankees and BoSox trio of young pitchers, Lester, Buchholz and Masterson to Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy. This in turn got me thinking about the Astros own back to 2001 when Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller and Carlos Hernandez were touted as the three next big things. Miller missed a swathe of 2005 and never recovered, nor did Hernandez after missing all of 2003. If you could pinpoint a time when the Hunsicker Plan went wrong it was there. Instead Gerry went out and got Clemens and Pettitte and the Astros farm system has produced very little in the way of pitching since.

But back in the late 90s/early 00s it wasn't about pitching it was about big mashing offenses, splurting out 800+ runs a year and cobbling together a pitching staff after Shane Reynolds and Darryl Kile left Houston. Remember Lima time, or Mike Hampton? Remember when all roads in the bullpen led to Billy Wagner? Remember the good old days, at least until we got to the postseason, then utter destruction (blame Kevin Brown, I often do).

So where is this meandering post actually leading you may ask? Just that adding another pitcher in the offseason may not be enough at the end of 2008, just look at Seattle. Sell the players listed in the first paragraph, and blay Billy Beane ball. Wade played win now while rebuilding and it hasn't work. Now he has to go back to Drayton and tell him so. Dust off Plan B, keep drafting smart, perhaps add a Ben Sheets in the winter (there should be some leverage in the payroll) and look at some guys Brad James, Gervacio towards the tail end of the season, and promote some position players (shock horror!!) and see if they fit, and pray, just pray things might shake out for 2010, 2011.

This is the end....my only friend, the end

I'm back in the UK, and my regular readers are probably sick to the teeth of these posts and ready for me to post exclusively Astros (you'll be disappointed, I can foresee many a rant in the upcoming months).

New York was amazing although I really did not do an awful lot. I went to the Met (Joey:The Mets suck, its the Yankees you want to see), paintings with historical backgrounds, such as the paintings in the french salons particularly interest me.

A trip to the Bronx to watch New York was very profitable, I sat right bang behind home plate, watching Edwin Jackson and Sidney Ponson trade zeros (of all things!). Bobby Abreu sent the Yankees fans home happy, although I must say it took Enter Sandman and a certain closer's entry to wake the slumbering afternoon revellers. Jason Giambi taches were in evidence everywhere, and to my amusement, someone had given the mamma mia poster on the subway the Giambi moustache.

The Staten island ferry capped of a fun and eventful trip, just as the sun was setting I realised it had all been worth it.

I met LOADS of people along the way, including two groups of Swiss, three lots of Germans, Belgians, Indians, French, Spaniards, Irish (lots of them) a Scot, and plenty of Brits (from Nottingham, Norwich, London, Burnley, Milton Keynes, Torquay, Huddersfield, Manchester), and far beyond.

The things I noticed along the way was the epedemic of beggars, especially in Philadelphia. CNN seems to talk of nothing but Barrack Obama and John McCain when it isn't talking about Gas Prices or Cindy McCain (who got busted for stealing her cookie recepie, ensue ridicule from Comedy Central's Jon Stewart). Did Laura Bush really tell Colbert to **** himself? The Love Guru is really the worst film of 2008, if not ever. I will never ride the Greyhound bus ever again due to pure uncomfortable seats coupled with incompetent staff and a hierarchy who really has no clue what is going on.

I will post photos in the next week or two. Thanks for reading.